Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Introduction

The European Union is a political and economic partnership which was formed after the Second World War for the purposes of fostering economic co-operation. This formation was based on the notion that, countries which collaborated in trade activities were unlikely to engage in wars with each other. However, several years down the line, Britain was triggered in a process to exit the European Union in a much-publicized referendum of June 23^rd the year 2016 in what is commonly known as Brexit. The latter has attracted a lot of opinions from renowned global leaders, citizens of the UK, religious and political figures. The results of the voting defiled expectations and shook global markets, making the British pound to fall to its lowest level against the dollar of the United States in 30 years period. This is just an indication that Brexit is not likely to succeed following the economic hardships that it would impose. In this paper, I argue that Brexit will not be a success due to several hardships that it will impose on its citizens and the government leadership from a social, political and economic perspective. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

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Why Brexit Will Fail

Lack of a Transition Period

So that Brexit becomes a success, it is mandatory that a transition period to the new environment of trade exists. Therefore, a smooth withdrawal from the European Union should provide the United Kingdom with the ample time to conduct several activities such as: negotiating for London protection and services related to finances, to safeguard the success of major industries with the UK in a single market and time to strike deals with the rest of the globe (Booth et al., 2015). There will also be the need to clarify the same position in Northern Ireland and Scotland through special negotiations. In any event, workers, relevant businesses and organizations ought to know in advance whether they are to lose their rights as members of the European Union and get prepared for change (Follis, 2017). The reality of the matter is that there is actually no time for any of the aforementioned to be achieved. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

A Complex and Unfavourable Trade Agreement

Discussions on parliamentary approval that fuelled legal debates bring forth another vital point. Whether the withdrawal happens with or without an agreement, what matters most and is key to Brexit is the agreement to set future relations in trade between the European Union and the UK after the withdrawal has taken place (Keohane, 2017).  A trade agreement will clearly outline and determine whether or not banks in London can conduct businesses in the European Union, if British cares can or cannot be subjected to formalities in customs and tariffs and if people will require visas to work and travel to Europe. The withdrawal agreement that is highlighted in article 50 is unlikely to resolve these issues. Therefore, the withdrawal agreement is a totally separate document from the trade agreement that is made through a process that is totally different with different content and this is likely to take longer than expected. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

The Call for A New Referendum Will Put an End To Brexit

The public in Britain has learned a lot since the previous vote. Approximately half of the voters on Brexit have continuously been supporting a second referendum alongside calls for another Brexit vote. Reports indicate the extent of misinformation and disinformation that most voters were previously subjected to (Booth et al., 2015).  This is an indication that, the public is now well informed on the pros and cons of Brexit and how it would impact their personal, professional, economic, social and academic lives hence the likelihood to vote on a no deal basis. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Lack of a Compelling Rationale

Brexit misses a compelling rationale and this increases its likelihood to fail. There are several reasons why effort and time are invested in a project similar to Brexit. The most notable are; capturing an opportunity and solving a problem. However, in the case of Brexit, the primary motivation among those who voted to leave the European Union was emotional. Some of the reasons include: betting how the United Kingdom would possibly save a lot of money, having a ground on the issue about refugees and some were rebelling against the Brussels bureaucrats (Altafi & Lamer, 2018).  From a critical perspective, this rationale would be less compelling upon the realization that the majority of the benefits which people voted for were only an illusion. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Lack of a Charismatic, Visionary and Consistent Sponsor to lead the Process

One of the characteristics of a highly effective and successful project transformation such as Brexit is the presence of a sponsor who is charismatic, energetic, sober and energetic. A perfect example can be given by the ability of President Obama to pass the Affordable Care Act despite sharp opposition from the Republicans (Owen & Munro, 2016). Generally, it was expected that Brexit would be led by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. On the contrary, Theresa May is the leader. Sad enough, she has very minimal or no experience in leading transformation projects and her belief in Brexit is questionable since she was previously more inclined towards those who wanted to remain during the referendum (Owen & Munro, 2016).  The lack of a vigilant and visionary sponsor will contribute to the Brexit failure.

Lack of a Clear Scope

Brexit lacks a clear scope which defines what the Brexit project will look like and when it will exactly be delivered.  The better this is known at the start, the better estimations on costs and duration taken for completion can be done. The opposite is true for Brexit where there is a lot of uncertainty of its scope and thus difficult to have a plan which is more accurate. Brexit has never happened before and therefore, no one really has an idea of what it entails (Sampson, 2017). This means that defining its scope is a painful task that probably takes months or years. The longer this takes, the higher the chances of failure. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Lack of a Precise Deadline and Finish line

Brexit lacks a finish line that is clear and precise. Brexit can be equated to a project that needs an undisputed deadline to have high success chances. Beginning without a precise finish line will influence it to take longer than expected. Setting deadlines helps to achieve realistic and timely results. An example of a deadline is that of the goal of having a man on the moon by the end of the 1960s as set by President John Kennedy (McCrae, 2016). This challenge inspired the whole nation to accomplish a project that would otherwise not have been possible. By failing to have deadlines, the Brexit team will have divided attention on the end goal and will have minimal or no pressure to attain the goal hence increasing the rate of failure (McCrae, 2016).

High Likelihood of Food Shortages and Automatic Application of WTO rules

The assumption that a trade agreement and a withdrawal agreement can be conducted at the same time is not a guarantee that it can be concluded at the same time. If this is the case, it means that withdrawal will only happen without trade deals either by majority in the council and the European Parliament consent under article 50withdrawal agreement or by automatically exiting after two years in case an agreement fails to be reached (Sabin, 2017).  However, in case the UK decides to withdraw without a trade agreement, then it is certain that the minimum World Trade Organization rules will automatically be applied. This means that customs delays could lead to food shortages. Nevertheless, the UK is highly vulnerable following an extreme heat wave and drought in the summer that causes global warming and has already decreased food output (Owen, Shepheard & Stojanovic, 2017).  The government and its leadership are not adamant to subject its residents to similar economic hardships meaning that there would be no Brexit.Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Looming High Tariffs and Inflation

Breaking away without a trade agreement also means that tariffs would be reimposed as high as 74% for tobacco products, 10% for automobiles and 22% for foodstuffs. This would mean that the prices of imports in the UK would increase and create inflation hence lowering the living standards of residents in the UK (McCrae, 2016). This will likely hit hard the economic situation in the UK and the best option would only be to remain part of EU.

Complications from Scotland and Ireland

Scotland/Ireland Will Complicate the Situation And Make Brexit Hard.

In the year 2014, Scotland voted against independence from the UK and won 55%-45%. The recent voting on Brexit was a shock to Scotland whose vote was also to remain in the EU. What further complicates the issue is the report Northern Ireland has been given permission to remain in the single market (Sampson, 2017).  This, therefore, means that the United Kingdom is likely to lose Scotland which would instead try to stop the process by voting against it. Since it has no authority to do that, Scotland can opt to join the EU on its own, similar to how nations such as Denmark have done (Sampson, 2017). The ability to resolve these issues amicably and time will make the entire process very problematic. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

A Looming Labour Shortage in the UK

            Brexit would most likely hurt young workers in the UK.  For instance, by the year 2030, Germany is estimated to have a labor shortage of two million workers. Young workers in Britain will also be affected since jobs will no longer be available to workers in the UK after Brexit and this will negatively impact UK’s economic situation (Follis, 2017).  In critically analyzing some of these implications, it is unlikely that Brexit will happen as the UK will have no immediate source to provide unemployed residents with jobs.

Europe Makes Brexit Impossible

There are many reasons why the EU would do anything to make Brexit impossible and uncomfortable. According to the Basic game theory, it is certain that the interests of the EU lie in a direction that is totally opposite and that is to make exiting as much difficult to prevent/discourage the departure of others. Expecting the EU to reverse this course is impossible.Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Losing membership In the Common Union and Customs Agreement

            There are specific rules in article 50 of the European Union on how members can voluntarily exit the EU. This follows that the UK is more likely to lose its membership in agreement of customs and the common union. Instead, a series of negotiated treaties would be proposed and this would need to be ratified by the UK and the EU which would be replaced by covenants that are less favorable (Booth et al., 2015). This amounts to greater disadvantage and would be less friendly to the UK and its economy, as compared to staying in the EU.Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper

Lose On the Ability to Bid on Public Contracts in Any Country within EU

            As noted by Altafin & Lamer (2018), Brexit would mean that companies in the UK will be at a very high risk of losing their ability to bid on public contracts that may be present in any EU country that is usually open to bidders from member states. The most notable loss is banking services for London where practitioners will automatically lose the ability to operate in member states. This will mean that the costs of the internet, air tickets, and phone services will rise, which will be highly disadvantageous to the UK.

References

Altafin, C., & Lamer, W. (2018). Challenges to the EU in 2017: Brexit implementation, populism, and the renewed attempt at advancing the social dimension of the European integration project.

Booth, S., Howarth, C., Ruparel, R., & Swidlicki, P. (2015). What If…?: The Consequences, Challenges & Opportunities Facing Britain Outside EU. Open Europe.

Follis, K. (2017). Maritime migration, Brexit and the future of European borders: anthropological previews. Český lid: etnologický časopis (Český lid: Ethnological journal), 104(1), 5-18.

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Keohane, D. (2017). Three’s company? France, Germany, the UK, and European defense post–Brexit. Elcano Royal Institute, ARI, 1, 2017-5.

McCrae, J. (2016). The Spending Challenge: How to cut spending while maintaining quality. Institute for Government, London, 5.

Owen, J. (2017). Implementing Brexit: Immigration. Institute for Government. www. Institute for the government. org. UK/publications/frictionless-trade-Brexit-august-2017.

Owen, J., & Munro, R. (2016). Whitehall’s preparation for the UK’s exit from the EU. Institute for Government, 14.

Owen, J., Shepheard, M., & Stojanovic, A. (2017). Implementing Brexit: Customs.

Sabin, L. (2017). Unions warn over Brexit. Guardian (Sydney), (1772), 8.

Sampson, T. (2017). Brexit: the economics of international disintegration. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 163-84. Brexit Argumentative Essay Paper